Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Consider longer term moving averages market width
Early December and finally gradually end 2013, let's look at a longer term breadth and what it offers on the strong rally in motion.Let's start with a picture longer term from the beginning of the 2009 Bull market for the present time:We see the Dow Jones Industrial Average (top) and a special indicator width which is the day 40 Simple moving average (SMA) NYSE width "smooth" (Advancing issues less issues declining).Technically, I'm average the intraday top, bottom and calculate near the line that gives a better representation of daily activity than the simple end of day close to width.Unsurprisingly, the width (average) was greater at the beginning or "Kick-off" of the 2009 Bull market rally and has since declined (formed by the peaks of averages below) that the rally has risen over the past four years.The two highest points in the composite average were the Summit of April 2010, then the peak of March 2012.The three lowest points in the composite average took place in mid-2012, September 2011 and may 2012.Relation to the 2013, we can see that the average width decreased with each successive new pic:I zoomed - in the graph (same settings) to highlight the 2012 for the current period that shows the phases of rally and retracement.Note the small differences in the average of the width in conjunction with points of rotation/tilt in the short term in the index.Width warns of prudence and a reduced participation compared to previous peaks (in lower prices in the index).It is a warning sign, but not necessarily a sign of 'sell stocks', at least not in a market powered by current stimuli in a historical seasonality bullish of end of the year (stocks tend to rise in the end of the year).Keep watching the width itself as well as indicators such as this which averaged an internal indicator of the market over time.Follow as well as members of the commentary daily and idealized trades summarized for updates in real-time and commercial additional planning parameters that we look at a 'hold and bounce' or 'break and retrace' scenario unfold in the near future.Corey Rosenbloom, CMTAfraid to Trade.comFollow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotradeNew book by Corey The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available with the new version taking advantage of the life cycle of a trend Stock (also at Wiley) presentation.
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